2008 Presidential Race

>Romney Hoping for Double Victory in FL Tonight

>[Update II – McCain Beats Romney in Florida GOP Race]

[Update – Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday]

It is widely expected that Rudy Giuliani will drop out of the race after a 3rd or 4th place finish in Florida tonight. The question is: who will the Rudy voters support? Many assume that the Rudy voters would naturally be most comfortable with John McCain. Jonathan Martin of Politico.com stated earlier today,

“Also, what is the impact of the Huck and Rudy fade? The CW [conventional wisdom] is that Huck’s folks bleed to Mitt and Rudy’s to McCain, but it may not be that simple. Key here may be what the Cubans do in South Florida. Rudy had worked this constituency pretty hard, but those that didn’t vote early already may be up for grabs.”

Martin was talking about FL but this seems to be the prevailing opinion nationally as well. Rudy’s people will go to McCain. But the conventional wisdom could be wrong on this one.

Rasmussen Reports released numbers today that indicate that Rudy’s voters may actually be more likely to jump to Romney. How so? Information from Rasmussen’s daily Presidential Tracking Poll indicates that “63% of Giuliani voters nationwide are politically conservative and 37% are not. Fifty-three percent (53%) of McCain supporters are conservative, 47% are not. Romney’s support is more solidly conservative—84% of his voters describe themselves in this way.” The assumption that Rudy’s people will jump to McCain seems to rest more on a comparison of the candidates than the voters who support them.

The Rasmussen article goes on to state: “Among Giuliani supporters, 82% have a favorable opinion of Romney. Just 61% have a favorable opinion of McCain.” When you look at the actual voters who support the candidates, it seems likely that more Rudy supporters will switch to Romney than McCain.

That all changes if McCain wins tonight. If John McCain wins Florida (he is ahead by 1 percentage point with 29% of precincts reporting), expect voters to continue to jump on the McCain bandwagon including many Rudy supporters. The media has already anointed McCain as the front-runner with their horse race coverage and if he wins FL that perception will be cemented.

There is a lot on the line for both Romney and McCain tonight. If McCain wins, expect voters to get behind the front-runner. But if Romney can pull off the win, he could enjoy a double victory if conservative Rudy supporters switch their allegiance to him.

And as we approach Super Tuesday, don’t forget about ol’ Mike Huckabee who is showing strength in the southern states.



11 thoughts on “>Romney Hoping for Double Victory in FL Tonight

  1. > ” I do think the Rudy endorsement is going to help McCain a lot.” I agree with this statement. This will be a big help to McCain, of course not as much help as what I think was a MONUMENTAL win in Florida. This put McCain in a great position. Those who have deep pockets that have been standing back watching the show thus far will stand tall and deliver the money McCain needs at a crucial time in his bid (they know this will come in handy later). It also gives somewhat of a defeatist attitude to Romney supporters going into Super Tuesday. Although he has deep pockets and still has good support, the loss in Florida will have a big impact on wavering voters. He is now working from a bit of a disadvantage. I think it could still be somewhat of a close race, but in my book Romney is “done” already. He just doesn’t know it yet, or at least won’t admit it.

    Posted by Mark Mathews | January 30, 2008, 6:50 pm
  2. >I thought that Romney and McCain both had good speeches last night. I do think the Rudy endorsement is going to help McCain a lot. I already heard rumors that Romney is not going to focus very much on the Northeast and instead he is going to focus on the south. Talk about dumb!!!! Romney needs to compete everywhere. That is ok for Huckabee because he is just trying to get all of the delegates he can. If Romney gives up on delegate-rich states such as NY and Cali then he is DONE!

    Posted by J.Wizzle | January 30, 2008, 5:28 pm
  3. >Here’s some of the exit poll data:Best candidate to beat the Democratic nominee in November: McCain 46% – Romney 33% Veterans: JM 42% – MR 35%Describe themselves as independents: JM 37% – MR 21%Describe themselves as moderates: JM won with 43%Describe themselves as very conservatives: MR 44% – JM 21%Describe as somewhat conservative: JM 35% – MR 32%Say most concerned about illegal immigration: MR 43% – JM 25%Most concerned with economy: JM 40% – MR 32%Most concerned with Iraq: JM 45% – 19%Seniors: JM 39% – MR 34%Ages 18-23: JM 30 – MR 23Males: JM 37% – MR 32%Females: JM 34% – MR 30%Hispanics: JM 54% – RG 24% – MR 14%

    Posted by Jeff Wright | January 30, 2008, 12:41 pm
  4. > “Romney won majority of evangelicals and those concerning about illegal immigrants.” I think McCain also had plenty of votes from people concerned about immigration. They just like McCain’s approach better. This position is frequently taken as if only those who hold to a particular view of immigration reform are truly concerned about it. However, I think most Americans are concerned with this issue. What McCain’s victory shows is that more people like his position on immigration reform rather than there just weren’t enough people concerned about it to get Romney the win.As far as the evangelical vote, you’re right on that, which is quite surprising considering Romney’s Mormonism, something that has had no effect on evangelicals. But those votes will come to McCain after Super Tuesday!

    Posted by Mark Mathews | January 30, 2008, 12:22 pm
  5. >It was said of Romney early in the game that his Mormon faith would hurt him. What is interesting is that he is losing in key states where he is actually getting a lot of the evangelical vote.

    Posted by Mark Mathews | January 30, 2008, 9:32 am
  6. >Romney won majority of evangelicals and those concerning about illegal immigrants. Veterans (and several others groups, of course) went for McCain. McCain just begain his victory speech…- touting that he won all Republican primary- mentioning his past duty stations in FL – thanking supporters- offering well wishes to Romney and his supporters, Huckabee & Rudy too [speaking very well of them in order to court their supporters, no doubt]- predicting wins in Super Tuesday, wrapping up nomination- Foot soldier in Reagan Revolution, proud to be Reagan Republican…and I missed the rest of the speech as the kids came running in crying about how they bonked heads when they were supposed to be in bed sleeping. Gotta love it!

    Posted by Jeff Wright | January 30, 2008, 3:01 am
  7. >”here in the UK and the internet is my only source for election coverage (that’s scary!).”Politico.com updates the results live as they come in, by the way.

    Posted by Jeff Wright | January 30, 2008, 2:36 am
  8. >”What a plan, ignore Iowa, ignore New Hampshire, ignore South Carolina. In fact, just kind of ignore the political system as it stands.”Yup, bad move. I totally understand crafting a strategy around FL but to not campaign in the other states at all was a poor decision to say the least. Sure, everyone has a state that they think they really need to win but you still give it your all in the other states until you get there.

    Posted by Jeff Wright | January 30, 2008, 2:35 am
  9. >I really expected Romney to win in FL. Well, now that McCain has won it will be interesting to see who the Rudy supporters go to. Rudy is expected to endorse McCain this week but I’m not sure that the endrorsement will have as much of an effect as they are hoping for. I expect the majority of the Rudy supporters to go over to Romney based on the information I shared in the post.

    Posted by Jeff Wright | January 30, 2008, 2:31 am
  10. >It’s 2:12 a.m. here in the UK and the internet is my only source for election coverage (that’s scary!). Anyway, while I study I always check in and it looks like McCain is pulling ahead and will probably win. Even if Rudy’s votes go to Romney it probably won’t be enough. I have only one question. Who is Giuliani’s campaign advisor? Boy was that guy an idiot. What a plan, ignore Iowa, ignore New Hampshire, ignore South Carolina. In fact, just kind of ignore the political system as it stands. Then, go down to Florida and spend millions and wait for everybody to get there. By the time they arrive you’ll have Florida in your pocket. NOT!

    Posted by Mark Mathews | January 30, 2008, 2:19 am
  11. >Well, the race in Florida has been called for McCain…but if you’re not happy with Romney or McCain, don’t worry. Vote for HUCKABEE!!!!!

    Posted by J.Wizzle | January 30, 2008, 2:17 am

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